{"id":1103,"date":"2026-04-10T09:27:57","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T06:27:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/?p=1103"},"modified":"2026-04-10T09:27:57","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T06:27:57","slug":"tahranin-direnc-dinamikleri-rejim-nasil-ayakta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/?p=1103","title":{"rendered":"Tahran\u2019\u0131n Diren\u00e7 Dinamikleri: Rejim Nas\u0131l Ayakta?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Elif Algi\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>28 \u015eubat 2026\u2019da Ayetullah Ali Hamaney\u2019in konutuna d\u00fczenlenen hava sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sonucu hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmesi, \u0130ran\u2019da rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi beklentilerini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerin aksine, bug\u00fcn gelinen noktada rejim y\u0131k\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f ve yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde koruyabilmi\u015ftir. Bu durum, \u0130ran rejiminin b\u00f6yle bir sars\u0131nt\u0131y\u0131 atlatabilecek \u015fekilde in\u015fa edilip edilmedi\u011fi sorusunu g\u00fcndeme getirmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump taraf\u0131ndan dile getirilen rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi beklentilerine ra\u011fmen \u0130ran rejiminin devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyabilmesinde belirli fakt\u00f6rler etkili olmu\u015ftur. K\u00f6rfez monar\u015filerinin aksine, \u0130ran\u2019da bireysel fig\u00fcrler \u00f6nemli bir otoriteye sahip olmakla birlikte rejimin k\u00f6kl\u00fc dini ve kurumsal temelleri, tek bir liderin kayb\u0131n\u0131n sistemi b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle sarsmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemi\u015ftir. Bu ba\u011flamda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan g\u00fc\u00e7 bo\u015fluklar\u0131, dini me\u015fruiyet zemininde yeniden doldurulabilmi\u015ftir. Ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran i\u00e7inde destekleyebilece\u011fi, \u00fczerinde uzla\u015f\u0131 sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015f alternatif bir lider fig\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn bulunmamas\u0131 da rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ihtimalini zay\u0131flatan \u00f6nemli unsurlardan biri olmu\u015ftur. Dini liderlik makam\u0131na M\u00fccteba Hamaney\u2019in se\u00e7ilmesi ise rejimin s\u00fcreklili\u011fini ve ideolojik hatt\u0131n\u0131 koruma amac\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131rken, di\u011fer yandan elitler aras\u0131nda belirli bir uzla\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanabildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla liderlik de\u011fi\u015fimi, rejimde bir k\u0131r\u0131lma yaratmak yerine, mevcut yap\u0131n\u0131n kendi i\u00e7 dinamikleriyle yeniden \u00fcretilmesini sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bunun yan\u0131nda rejimin k\u00f6kl\u00fc dini dayanaklar\u0131, siyasal yap\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini engelleyen en \u00f6nemli me\u015fruiyet kaynaklar\u0131ndan biri olmu\u015ftur. \u0130ran\u2019da siyasi otoritenin temelini olu\u015fturan Velayet-i Fakih ilkesi, liderlik makam\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca siyasi de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda dini bir otorite olarak da tan\u0131mlamaktad\u0131r. Bu durum da rejime ideolojik bir s\u00fcreklilik kazand\u0131r\u0131rken Ali Hamaney sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde de bu ilkenin devam ettirilmesi ve yeni liderli\u011fin ayn\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evede me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, sistemin s\u00fcreklili\u011fini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015ftir. Bu nedenle, dini otoritenin siyasal yap\u0131yla i\u00e7 i\u00e7e ge\u00e7mi\u015f olmas\u0131, lider kayb\u0131n\u0131n rejim a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan varolu\u015fsal bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesini engellemi\u015f; aksine, dini me\u015fruiyet \u00fczerinden yeni bir g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00d6te yandan, yakla\u015f\u0131k 190 bin personel kapasitesine sahip \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131, \u0130ran-ABD sava\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcrecince rejimin ayakta kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan ba\u015fl\u0131ca unsurlardan biri olmu\u015ftur. Yaln\u0131zca konvansiyonel bir askeri g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda rejimin ideolojik ve g\u00fcvenlik ayg\u0131t\u0131 olarak i\u015flev g\u00f6ren bu yap\u0131, hem d\u0131\u015f tehditlere kar\u015f\u0131 cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f hem de i\u00e7 istikrar\u0131n korunmas\u0131nda rol oynam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu do\u011frultuda, Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki ABD \u00fcsleri ile \u0130srail hedeflerine y\u00f6nelik hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 \u0130ran s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesine ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik hamleleri, ABD\u2019nin do\u011frudan rejim merkezini hedef alan bir operasyon y\u00fcr\u00fctmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra asimetrik sava\u015f kapasitesi, izledi\u011fi yatay sava\u015f stratejisi, geni\u015f milis a\u011flar\u0131 ve toplumsal mobilizasyon kabiliyeti sayesinde Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 hem askeri hem de i\u00e7 g\u00fcvenlik d\u00fczleminde rejimin s\u00fcreklili\u011fini sa\u011flamaya y\u00f6nelik bir \u201ckoruyucu yap\u0131\u201d i\u015flevi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f; b\u00f6ylece liderlik krizine ra\u011fmen sistemin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyen en kritik akt\u00f6rlerden biri haline gelmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130ran-ABD sava\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcrecinde rejimin y\u0131k\u0131lmamas\u0131nda \u0130ran toplum yap\u0131s\u0131 da rejimin yaln\u0131zca bir y\u00f6netim ayg\u0131t\u0131 de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda ideolojik ve toplumsal bir a\u011f \u00fczerinden varl\u0131k g\u00f6stermesi, kriz anlar\u0131nda sistemin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini engellemi\u015ftir. \u00d6zellikle d\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahale tehdidinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ulusal savunma refleksi, farkl\u0131 toplumsal kesimler aras\u0131nda ge\u00e7ici bir dayan\u0131\u015fma \u00fcretmi\u015ftir. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran toplumunun belirli kesimlerinin devletle ekonomik, ideolojik ve g\u00fcvenlik temelli ba\u011flar \u00fczerinden entegre edilmi\u015f olmas\u0131, geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir i\u00e7 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmenin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rejimin y\u0131k\u0131lmamas\u0131nda belirleyici olan unsurlardan biri de elit tepkilerinin par\u00e7al\u0131 de\u011fil, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde b\u00fct\u00fcnc\u00fcl bir \u00e7izgide \u015fekillenmesidir. \u0130ran\u2019daki siyasi ve askeri elitler, \u00f6zellikle kriz anlar\u0131nda sistem i\u00e7i rekabeti ikinci plana iterek rejimin devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 etraf\u0131nda konsolide olma e\u011filimi g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te Uzmanlar Meclisi, Anayasay\u0131 Koruyucular Konseyi ve \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 gibi kurumlar aras\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ya\u015fanmamas\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelesinin sistem i\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131rlar i\u00e7inde tutuldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir. Elitler aras\u0131 bu g\u00f6reli uyum, olas\u0131 bir iktidar bo\u015flu\u011funun derinle\u015fmesini engellemi\u015f; farkl\u0131 fraksiyonlar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f akt\u00f6rlerle ittifak kurarak rejimi zay\u0131flatma ihtimalini s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla elit d\u00fczeydeki bu kontroll\u00fc dayan\u0131\u015fma, rejimin kriz kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda da\u011f\u0131lmak yerine yeniden organize olabilmesine imk\u00e2n tan\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak, \u0130ran-ABD sava\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcreci, \u0130ran rejiminin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyarken ayn\u0131 zamanda bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u0131nand\u0131\u011f\u0131 kritik bir e\u015fik i\u015flevi de g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Ayr\u0131ca, ya\u015fanan liderlik kayb\u0131, d\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahale bask\u0131s\u0131 ve i\u00e7 dengelerin yeniden \u015fekillenmesi, rejimin bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te ciddi bir dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k s\u0131nav\u0131 verdi\u011fini de g\u00f6stermektedir. Ancak, bu sava\u015f, rejimin y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7masa da esnekli\u011finin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalmas\u0131na sebep olurken artan kontrol kayg\u0131s\u0131yla yeni bir d\u00f6neme girmesine de neden olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Elif Algi\u015f 28 \u015eubat 2026\u2019da Ayetullah Ali Hamaney\u2019in konutuna d\u00fczenlenen hava sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sonucu hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmesi, \u0130ran\u2019da rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi beklentilerini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerin aksine, bug\u00fcn gelinen noktada rejim y\u0131k\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f ve yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde koruyabilmi\u015ftir. Bu durum, \u0130ran rejiminin b\u00f6yle bir sars\u0131nt\u0131y\u0131 atlatabilecek \u015fekilde in\u015fa edilip edilmedi\u011fi sorusunu g\u00fcndeme getirmektedir. ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":1104,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30,27],"tags":[],"series":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1103"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/24"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1103"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1103\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1105,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1103\/revisions\/1105"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1104"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1103"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1103"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1103"},{"taxonomy":"series","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fseries&post=1103"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}