{"id":1106,"date":"2026-04-10T09:32:09","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T06:32:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/?p=1106"},"modified":"2026-04-13T14:53:29","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T11:53:29","slug":"rusya-perspektifinden-abd-israil-ve-iran-catismasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/?p=1106","title":{"rendered":"Rusya Perspektifinden ABD\/\u0130srail-\u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Mehmetcan \u015eahin<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ABD, \u0130srail ve \u0130ran gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck akt\u00f6rler aras\u0131ndaki askeri gerilimler, k\u00fcresel sistemi derinden sarsmaktad\u0131r. Washington\u2019un m\u00fcdahaleleri, \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 in\u015fa edilen uluslararas\u0131 sistemin alt\u0131n\u0131 oymaktad\u0131r. Zaten varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 hale gelen neoliberal d\u00fczen bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te daha da zay\u0131flarken, aniden y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131 k\u00fcresel bir endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Bu durum, t\u00fcm k\u00fcresel akt\u00f6rlerin g\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmelere \u00e7evirmesine neden olmu\u015ftur. Bu akt\u00f6rlerin ba\u015f\u0131nda gelen Rusya&#8217;n\u0131n, s\u00f6z konusu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcrecinden nas\u0131l etkilendi\u011fi, bu yaz\u0131n\u0131n temel odak noktas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Analize ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce \u00f6nemli bir ayr\u0131m yapmak gerekir: Bu metinde &#8220;Rusya&#8221; ifadesi, ana ak\u0131m okumalar\u0131n aksine tek ve homojen bir birimi temsil etmemektedir. Devlet; toplumsal ili\u015fkilerin yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ayg\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n bu do\u011frultuda \u015fekillendirildi\u011fi bir mekanizmalar b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcd\u00fcr. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu yaz\u0131da &#8220;Rusya&#8221; ile kastedilen akt\u00f6r, \u00fclke n\u00fcfusunun tamam\u0131 de\u011fil; y\u00f6netici elit ve onlar\u0131n temsil etti\u011fi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir az\u0131nl\u0131kt\u0131r. Sava\u015f\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 avantaj ve riskler de\u011ferlendirilirken bu ayr\u0131m\u0131n ak\u0131lda tutulmas\u0131 gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Sava\u015f\u0131n Rusya\u2019ya Etkileri<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda patlak veren askeri bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemesi sebebiyle, Rus y\u00f6netici eliti i\u00e7in belirli avantajlar sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. \u0130lk ve en belirgin avantaj, ABD ve d\u00fcnya kamuoyunun dikkatinin Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019dan Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya kaymas\u0131d\u0131r. Ukrayna\u2019da stratejik hedeflerine tam olarak ula\u015famam\u0131\u015f ancak sahada avantaj\u0131n\u0131 koruyan Moskova, daha \u00f6nce Washington\u2019un ate\u015fkes bask\u0131s\u0131 ve enerji yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yayd\u0131. Ancak ABD&#8217;nin oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a kaymas\u0131, bu bask\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. Ayr\u0131ca, Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck askeri destek\u00e7isi olan ABD\u2019nin askeri stoklar\u0131n\u0131 \u0130ran merkezli bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya kayd\u0131rmas\u0131, askeri personel ve ekipman a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan d\u0131\u015fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olan Ukrayna kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n elini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bir di\u011fer olumlu etki ise Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ihra\u00e7 etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 enerji kaynaklar\u0131na Amerika taraf\u0131ndan gelen yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n esnetilmesi ve talebin artmas\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130ran gerilimi \u00f6ncesinde Trump y\u00f6netiminin Rusya\u2019y\u0131 ate\u015fkese zorlamak amac\u0131yla uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sert enerji yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, \u00c7in ve Hindistan gibi dev al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n bile Rusya\u2019dan al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 dengelemek isteyen ABD, paradoksal bir bi\u00e7imde Rusya\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 gev\u015fetmek zorunda kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015fin k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131yla birlikte Rus enerji kaynaklar\u0131na olan k\u00fcresel talebin artmas\u0131, askeri m\u00fccadelesinin be\u015finci y\u0131l\u0131na giren, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 veren ve daralan Rus ekonomisi i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli bir nefes alan\u0131 yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Uzun Vadeli Riskler ve B\u00f6lgesel Dengeler<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>K\u0131sa vadeli bu kazan\u0131mlara ra\u011fmen, Moskova i\u00e7in ciddi riskler de masadad\u0131r. \u0130ran, Rusya i\u00e7in b\u00f6lgedeki en kritik stratejik ortakt\u0131r. Bu ortakl\u0131k ili\u015fkisi askeri, siyasi ve ekonomik olarak bir\u00e7ok alanda ilerlemi\u015ftir. Ekonomik olarak Gazprom\u2019un 40 milyar dolarl\u0131k anla\u015fmas\u0131 ve Rosatom\u2019un \u0130ran\u2019da in\u015fa etmeyi planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 8 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli mod\u00fcler reakt\u00f6r (SMR), Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bu \u00fclkedeki devasa sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. \u0130ran\u2019da ya\u015fanacak bir istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k, bu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kayb\u0131 demektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Politik olarak ise \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00e7ok etnikli yap\u0131s\u0131ndaki bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n &#8220;arka bah\u00e7esi&#8221; say\u0131lan Kafkasya\u2019da domino etkisi yaratarak Rus hakimiyetini tehdit edebilir. Ayr\u0131ca, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n BRICS \u00fcyesi olmas\u0131, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Bat\u0131 merkezli hegemonya kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 &#8220;\u00e7ok kutuplu d\u00fcnya&#8221; vizyonu i\u00e7in \u00f6nemlidir. \u0130ran\u2019da ya\u015fanacak bir istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k, in\u015fa edilen bu alternatif diplomatik ve ekonomik blok projesine a\u011f\u0131r bir darbe vuracakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Askeri olarak ise, \u0130ran \u00f6zellikle \u0130HA ve S\u0130HA\u2019lar alan\u0131nda Rusya\u2019ya hem teknolojik hem de \u00fcretim anlam\u0131nda destek sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddia edilmektedir. Ayr\u0131ca iki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda istihbarat payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 da mevcuttur. \u0130ran\u2019da rejimin ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131 istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k Rusya\u2019ya bu y\u00f6nden de zarar verme riski ta\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00d6zetle \u0130ran, Rusya i\u00e7in bir\u00e7ok alanda \u00f6nemli bir stratejik ortakt\u0131r. Hatta bu stratejik partnerlik, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda imzalanan Kapsaml\u0131 Stratejik Ortakl\u0131k Anla\u015fmas\u0131nda kendisini g\u00f6stermi\u015f, iki \u00fclkenin Bat\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 kader birli\u011fi yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tescillemi\u015ftir. Ancak \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Rusya i\u00e7in \u00f6nemine kar\u015f\u0131n bu Rusya\u2019n\u0131n sava\u015fta bir taraf se\u00e7ti\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmez. \u0130srail\u2019de Rusya i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir akt\u00f6rd\u00fcr. Rusya ile Ukrayna aras\u0131nda askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ve Bat\u0131 \u00fclkeleri Rusya\u2019y\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar uygulay\u0131p bo\u011fmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken \u0130srail bu yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara kat\u0131lmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu y\u00fczden Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bu sava\u015fa olan ele\u015ftirileri daha \u00e7ok ABD\u2019nin uluslararas\u0131 hukuku ihlali ve bu sava\u015f\u0131n n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n yay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rma endi\u015fesi \u00fczerinden gelir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bir de bu sava\u015f\u0131n i\u00e7erde nas\u0131l bir etki yaratabilece\u011fine bakmak gerekir. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n devlet d\u0131\u015f borcunun 2026 itibar\u0131yla 60 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131, her y\u0131l b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n verilmesi, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele politikalar\u0131 gere\u011fi \u00fclkede yeni yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n ve \u00fcretimin iyice yava\u015flamas\u0131, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlardan dolay\u0131 petrol ve do\u011falgaz\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131, Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n bu \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin depolama merkezlerine d\u00fczenledi\u011fi \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n depolama kapasitesini azaltmas\u0131 ve savunma sanayisine dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme modelinin (askeri Keynesyenizm) doyuma ula\u015fmas\u0131, Rusya\u2019da vatanda\u015flar\u0131n ya\u015fam standartlar\u0131n\u0131 iyice d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n Rusya i\u00e7erisinde enflasyonu k\u00f6r\u00fckleme riski, y\u00f6netimin Ukrayna\u2019daki &#8220;\u00d6zel Askeri Operasyonu&#8221; halk nezdinde me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 daha da zorla\u015ft\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Sonu\u00e7<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran ile olan sava\u015f\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede Rusya\u2019ya \u00f6zellikle Ukrayna \u00f6zelinde taktiksel bir alan a\u00e7sa da, bu durumun mutlak bir &#8220;fayda&#8221; olarak okunmas\u0131 yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131d\u0131r. Sava\u015f\u0131n gelece\u011findeki belirsizlik, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n stratejik yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fcvenli\u011fini tehdit etmektedir. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, k\u00fcresel enerji krizi, ekonomik daralma ve b\u00f6lgede b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin aras\u0131ndaki askeri kriz Moskova\u2019n\u0131n hem Ukrayna cephesinde hem b\u00f6lgedeki b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler ile ili\u015fkilerinde hem de i\u00e7 kamuoyunda y\u00f6netmek zorunda oldu\u011fu, \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131 ama bir o kadar da hassas ili\u015fkiler a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7ine atm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu hassasl\u0131k denge kurmadaki zorlu\u011fu da beraberinde getirmektedir. Bu sitede \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131mda uluslararas\u0131 neoliberal sistemin derinle\u015fen krizini ve b\u00fct\u00fcn akt\u00f6rlerin yeni kurulacak uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczen i\u00e7in haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015ftim. Bu haz\u0131rl\u0131klar g\u00fcn ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e yeni krizler do\u011furacak ve sadece Rusya i\u00e7in de\u011fil uluslararas\u0131 alandaki b\u00fct\u00fcn akt\u00f6rler i\u00e7in taraflar aras\u0131ndaki o hassas dengeyi y\u00fcr\u00fctmek zorla\u015facakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mehmetcan \u015eahin ABD, \u0130srail ve \u0130ran gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck akt\u00f6rler aras\u0131ndaki askeri gerilimler, k\u00fcresel sistemi derinden sarsmaktad\u0131r. Washington\u2019un m\u00fcdahaleleri, \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 in\u015fa edilen uluslararas\u0131 sistemin alt\u0131n\u0131 oymaktad\u0131r. Zaten varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 hale gelen neoliberal d\u00fczen bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te daha da zay\u0131flarken, aniden y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131 k\u00fcresel bir endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Bu durum, t\u00fcm k\u00fcresel akt\u00f6rlerin g\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1163,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30,27,28],"tags":[],"series":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1106"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1106"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1106\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1181,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1106\/revisions\/1181"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1163"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1106"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1106"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1106"},{"taxonomy":"series","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fseries&post=1106"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}