{"id":1117,"date":"2026-04-10T10:03:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T07:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/?p=1117"},"modified":"2026-04-13T14:52:58","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T11:52:58","slug":"abd-iran-savasi-ve-turkiye-uc-senaryo-uc-farkli-gelecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/?p=1117","title":{"rendered":"ABD\/\u0130srail-\u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye: \u00dc\u00e7 Senaryo, \u00dc\u00e7 Farkl\u0131 Gelecek"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Zelal \u00d6zdemir<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130ran etraf\u0131nda \u015fekillenen mevcut sava\u015f dinami\u011fi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi klasik anlamda bir taraf olmaktan ziyade, \u00e7ok katmanl\u0131 bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma i\u00e7inde konumland\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye ne do\u011frudan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndad\u0131r ne de tam anlam\u0131yla i\u00e7indedir. Daha isabetli bir ifadeyle, dolayl\u0131 temas halinde bir akt\u00f6r olarak g\u00fcvenlik, d\u0131\u015f politika ve uluslararas\u0131 sistem i\u00e7indeki rol d\u00fczeylerinde e\u015fzamanl\u0131 bask\u0131larla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yad\u0131r. Bu \u00e7ok katmanl\u0131 yap\u0131, d\u0131\u015f politika ile i\u00e7 siyasetin birbirinden ayr\u0131\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ba\u011flamda daha da belirgin hale gelmektedir. Sava\u015f\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik riskleri yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi geli\u015fmelerden de\u011fil, bu geli\u015fmelerin T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7inde nas\u0131l alg\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan ve siyasal olarak nas\u0131l i\u015flendi\u011finden da beslenmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu temel mesele, do\u011frudan bir askeri tehditten ziyade, b\u00f6lgesel d\u00fczensizli\u011fin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131na ve i\u00e7 siyasal dengelerine nas\u0131l yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. G\u00f6\u00e7 hareketleri, s\u0131n\u0131r b\u00f6lgelerinde istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k ve devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerin hareket alan\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesi bu d\u00fczensizli\u011fin ba\u015fl\u0131ca kanallar\u0131d\u0131r. Ancak mevcut durumun daha iyi anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in analizi senaryolar \u00fczerinden ilerletmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin pozisyonu, tekil bir geli\u015fmeden ziyade sava\u015f\u0131n nas\u0131l evrilece\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u015fekillenmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Senaryo 1: K\u0131sa Ate\u015fkes, Uzun Belirsizlik<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130lk senaryo, k\u0131sa vadeli bir ate\u015fkesle \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n dondurulmas\u0131, ancak yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmemesidir. Bu durumda sava\u015f sona ermez, yaln\u0131zca ertelenir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu senaryo g\u00f6rece rahatlat\u0131c\u0131d\u0131r. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda k\u0131smi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve ekonomik bask\u0131n\u0131n hafiflemesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn hale gelir. Diplomatik olarak T\u00fcrkiye yeniden arabuluculuk rol\u00fcne talip olabilir ve uluslararas\u0131 platformlarda daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale gelebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bununla birlikte bu senaryonun temel \u00f6zelli\u011fi \u201cy\u00f6netilen istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k\u201dt\u0131r. Kriz \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin mevcut denge siyaseti korunur, ancak k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortadan kalkmaz. Bu nedenle bu senaryo bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmden \u00e7ok, ertelenmi\u015f bir kriz anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Senaryo 2: Sava\u015f\u0131n Derinle\u015fmesi ve B\u00f6lgeselle\u015fmesi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130kinci senaryo, sava\u015f\u0131n uzamas\u0131 ve K\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesine yay\u0131lmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu durumda \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00e7ok akt\u00f6rl\u00fc ve daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez bir hale gelir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu senaryo T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en karma\u015f\u0131k sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00fcretir. K\u0131sa vadede g\u00fcvenlik s\u00f6ylemi i\u00e7 siyasette konsolidasyon yaratabilir. Ancak orta vadede ekonomik maliyet belirleyici hale gelir. Enerji ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek bir ekonomi i\u00e7in H\u00fcrm\u00fcz hatt\u0131nda ya\u015fanacak bir kriz do\u011frudan maliyet \u00fcretir. Buna turizm gelirlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve b\u00f6lgesel ticaretin daralmas\u0131 da eklenir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Daha \u00f6nemlisi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ayn\u0131 anda \u0130ran ve K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleriyle s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc paralel ili\u015fkiler s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez hale gelir. Taraf se\u00e7me bask\u0131s\u0131 artar. Bu da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin uzun s\u00fcredir izledi\u011fi denge politikas\u0131n\u0131 yap\u0131sal olarak zorlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Senaryo 3: K\u00fcresel Dengenin De\u011fi\u015fmesi ve D\u0131\u015f G\u00fcvencenin Zay\u0131flamas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc senaryo, sava\u015f\u0131n uzamas\u0131yla birlikte ABD i\u00e7 siyasetinde de\u011fi\u015fim ya\u015fanmas\u0131 ve mevcut uluslararas\u0131 dengelerin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu senaryoda T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temel mesele d\u0131\u015f politika alan\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131d\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin son d\u00f6nemde Bat\u0131 ile ili\u015fkilerinde kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 manevra alan\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde konjonkt\u00fcrel ili\u015fkilere dayanmaktad\u0131r. Bu ili\u015fkilerin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 durumunda T\u00fcrkiye yeniden daha yo\u011fun bir d\u0131\u015f bask\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu durum i\u00e7 siyasette de dolayl\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar \u00fcretir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u0131\u015f politika alan\u0131ndaki daralma, i\u00e7 siyasal me\u015fruiyet \u00fcretiminde kullan\u0131lan \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc devlet\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 zorlayabilir. B\u00f6ylece rejim ayn\u0131 anda hem g\u00fc\u00e7lenme hem k\u0131r\u0131lganla\u015fma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu \u00fc\u00e7 senaryo birlikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan tablo nettir: T\u00fcrkiye bu kriz ba\u011flam\u0131nda belirleyici bir akt\u00f6r de\u011fil, risk y\u00f6neten bir akt\u00f6rd\u00fcr. Sava\u015f\u0131n seyrini tayin etme kapasitesi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k sava\u015f\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan do\u011frudan etkilenmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin temel stratejisi, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmekten ziyade, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan \u00e7ok katmanl\u0131 riskleri dengelemek ve yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak olarak \u015fekillenmektedir. Bu durum, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin orta g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak tan\u0131mlanan konumunun hem imk\u00e2nlar\u0131n\u0131 hem de s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 ayn\u0131 anda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr k\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Zelal \u00d6zdemir \u0130ran etraf\u0131nda \u015fekillenen mevcut sava\u015f dinami\u011fi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi klasik anlamda bir taraf olmaktan ziyade, \u00e7ok katmanl\u0131 bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma i\u00e7inde konumland\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye ne do\u011frudan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndad\u0131r ne de tam anlam\u0131yla i\u00e7indedir. Daha isabetli bir ifadeyle, dolayl\u0131 temas halinde bir akt\u00f6r olarak g\u00fcvenlik, d\u0131\u015f politika ve uluslararas\u0131 sistem i\u00e7indeki rol d\u00fczeylerinde e\u015fzamanl\u0131 bask\u0131larla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yad\u0131r. Bu [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":1162,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30,27,29],"tags":[],"series":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1117"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1117"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1117\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1180,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1117\/revisions\/1180"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1162"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1117"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1117"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1117"},{"taxonomy":"series","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fseries&post=1117"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}