{"id":1129,"date":"2026-04-10T10:09:14","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T07:09:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/?p=1129"},"modified":"2026-04-10T12:20:07","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T09:20:07","slug":"cin-iran-savasinin-neresinde","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/?p=1129","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7\u0130N \u0130RAN SAVA\u015eININ NERES\u0130NDE?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Nilg\u00fcn Elik\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck Y\u0131ld\u0131r\u0131m<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2026 \u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bir taraf\u0131 olmamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen hem petrol ithalat\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na olan ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hem de \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n temel m\u00fcttefiklerinden biri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesinden dolay\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131nda nas\u0131l bir pozisyon ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve alaca\u011f\u0131 merak uyand\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. \u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli maliyetlerinden biri \u015f\u00fcphesiz ki H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 sonucu ya\u015fanan enerji krizidir. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 d\u00fcnyada deniz yoluyla ta\u015f\u0131nan petrol\u00fcn y\u00fczde 30\u2019u ve do\u011falgaz\u0131n y\u00fczde 20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi dar bir deniz yoludur. Fakat H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ta\u015f\u0131nan petrol ve do\u011falgaz\u0131n y\u00fczde 80\u2019ni \u00c7in, Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore gibi Asya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat ekonomilerine ula\u015fmaktad\u0131r. Yani H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na olan enerji ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir Asya problemidir. \u00c7in\u2019in petrol ithalat\u0131nda da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz \u00f6nemli bir yer tutmaktad\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019in petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 50\u2019den fazlas\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz \u00fczerinden sa\u011flanmakta ve Suudi Arabistan\u2019la \u0130ran bu ithalatta ilk iki s\u0131rada yer almaktad\u0131rlar. Analiz firmas\u0131 Kpler’in 2025 verilerine g\u00f6re, \u00c7in \u0130ran’\u0131n sevk etti\u011fi petrol\u00fcn %80 ‘inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n almaktad\u0131r. Yine Kpler’e g\u00f6re \u00c7in, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ortalama olarak g\u00fcnde 1,38 milyon varil \u0130ran petrol\u00fc sat\u0131n alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu, deniz yoluyla ithal etti\u011fi toplam 10,27 milyon varil petrol\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %13,4’\u00fcne tekab\u00fcl etmektedir. \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019dan ithal etti\u011fi ham petrol miktar\u0131 y\u00fczde 13 gibi bir y\u00fczdeyle y\u00fcksek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de petrol\u00fcn \u00c7in\u2019in toplam enerji t\u00fcketimi i\u00e7erisindeki yerini bilmek asl\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130ran petrol\u00fcne ciddi bir ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermek i\u00e7in \u00f6nemlidir. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 \u00c7in enerji t\u00fcketimi verilerine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 51\u2019le k\u00f6m\u00fcr, y\u00fczde 21 ile yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131 ve ancak \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc s\u0131rada y\u00fczde 18 ile petrol, \u00fclkenin enerji t\u00fcketiminde rol oynayan \u00f6nemli kaynaklar olarak yerini alm\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. Yani \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130ran petrol\u00fcne olan ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 18\u2019lik toplam petrol t\u00fcketiminin i\u00e7inde y\u00fczde 13\u2019\u00fcne tekab\u00fcl etmektedir. \u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede \u00c7in i\u00e7in \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir enerji krizine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesini engelleyecek di\u011fer bir husus ise \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck miktarlarda ham petrol stokunun bulunmas\u0131d\u0131r. 2026 Ocak-\u015eubat aylar\u0131nda tahminlere g\u00f6re \u00c7in g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,24 milyon varil petrol depolam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019dan ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol miktar\u0131n\u0131n 1,38 milyon varil civarlar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrse bu ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019in i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede kurtar\u0131c\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Yani \u00c7in\u2019in temel olarak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na olan petrol ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclke ekonomisini k\u0131sa vadede sarsacak derecede bir ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in jeopolitik gerek\u00e7elerle \u00c7in\u2019in sava\u015fa m\u00fcdahil olmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran sava\u015f ekonomisini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in \u0130ran petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn temel al\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 olan \u00c7in\u2019e enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 da kesmek istemeyecektir. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda \u00c7in bayrakl\u0131 gemilere g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015f sa\u011flamas\u0131 bunun en \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergesidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131na m\u00fcdahil olmas\u0131 konusunda beklenti yaratan di\u011fer bir husus ise \u0130ran ve \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki ekonomik ve siyasi ili\u015fkilerin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temele dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 yan\u0131lg\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r. ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 \u00c7in \u0130ran petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn temel al\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 ve \u0130ran i\u00e7 pazar\u0131nda alternatifi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir akt\u00f6rd\u00fcr. Fakat bu ili\u015fki \u0130ran i\u00e7in bir mecburiyet \u00c7in i\u00e7in ise ekonomik \u00e7\u0131kar ili\u015fkisinden ibarettir. \u00c7in \u0130ran petrol\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131r\u0131mlardan dolay\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na Umman petrol\u00fcne g\u00f6re 8-10 dolar civar\u0131 indirimle almaktad\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca hem petrol\u00fcn al\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 olan hem de \u0130ran i\u00e7 pazar\u0131nda faaliyet g\u00f6steren \u015firketler b\u00fcy\u00fck kamu \u015firketleri de\u011fil ka\u00e7ak\u00e7\u0131l\u0131k gibi yerel piyasaya da kolayl\u0131kla uyum sa\u011flayabilen k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ve \u00f6zel \u00c7in \u015firketleridir. Yani akt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda \u00c7in gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir g\u00fc\u00e7ten beklenen de\u011ferler \u00fczerine kurulu normatif bir i\u015f birli\u011fi s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fildir. Yine ayr\u0131ca \u00c7in ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda Ku\u015fak ve Yol Giri\u015fimi kapsam\u0131nda 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda imzalanan 25 y\u0131ll\u0131k i\u015f birli\u011fi anla\u015fmas\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a 400 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. Fakat bu yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir miktar\u0131 hayata ge\u00e7irilmi\u015ftir. Ayr\u0131ca \u00c7in\u2019in sava\u015f\u0131n bir taraf\u0131 olmas\u0131 durumunda Suudi Arabistan ve Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri gibi \u0130ran\u2019dan daha \u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkeleri de kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na almas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusudur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Siyasi olarak ise, \u00c7in\u2019in sadece \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla de\u011fil son 2-3 y\u0131ld\u0131r \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Ortado\u011fu\u2019da b\u00f6lgesel bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olmas\u0131na imk\u00e2n veren bir askeri kapasiteye sahip olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda (\u00f6zellikle \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran g\u00fcvenlik sistemine s\u0131zmas\u0131 gibi) endi\u015feleri vard\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran\u2019daki rejimin k\u00f6t\u00fc y\u00f6netim ve yolsuzluk gibi birtak\u0131m i\u00e7 ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131klar\u0131 da \u00c7in karar al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u0130ran konusunda hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na u\u011fratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130ran her ne kadar \u00c7in\u2019in istihbarat payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, ter\u00f6rizm kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 i\u015f birli\u011fi ve ortak tatbikatlar gibi askeri konular\u0131 da kapsayan kapsaml\u0131 stratejik ortakl\u0131k ilan etti\u011fi bir devlet olsa da bu ortakl\u0131k \u00c7in\u2019in ittifak yapmama stratejisiyle uyumlu olarak kal\u0131c\u0131 bir askeri i\u015f birli\u011fi i\u00e7ermemektedir. Fakat bu kapsaml\u0131 stratejik i\u015f birli\u011fi kapsam\u0131nda yine \u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131 \u00f6zelinde olmasa bile \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130ran rejiminin hedefleme kabiliyetlerini, istihbarat deste\u011fi, navigasyon ve radar sistem ve teknolojileri konular\u0131nda askeri kapasitesini artt\u0131rabilecek birtak\u0131m destekleri olabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin veri ve bilginin \u00f6nemli rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu sava\u015fta \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a yapay zek\u00e2 destekli istihbarat yard\u0131m\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde birtak\u0131m iddialar bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Sonu\u00e7 olarak \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a herhangi bir askeri i\u015f birli\u011fi taahh\u00fcd\u00fc bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi siyasi i\u015f birli\u011fi de her iki otoriter rejim aras\u0131nda normatif temeli olmayan bir \u00e7\u0131kar ili\u015fkisine dayanmaktad\u0131r. Bu y\u00fczden Pekin \u0130ran\u2019daki olas\u0131 bir rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi gibi en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryoda bile petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ve \u00c7in\u2019in ekonomik \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck bir zarar gelmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece sava\u015f\u0131n taraf\u0131 olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nilg\u00fcn Elik\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck Y\u0131ld\u0131r\u0131m 2026 \u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bir taraf\u0131 olmamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen hem petrol ithalat\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na olan ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hem de \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n temel m\u00fcttefiklerinden biri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesinden dolay\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131nda nas\u0131l bir pozisyon ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve alaca\u011f\u0131 merak uyand\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. \u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli maliyetlerinden biri \u015f\u00fcphesiz ki H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 sonucu ya\u015fanan enerji krizidir. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":1164,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,30,27],"tags":[],"series":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1129"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1129"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1129\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1131,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1129\/revisions\/1131"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1164"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1129"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1129"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1129"},{"taxonomy":"series","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fseries&post=1129"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}