{"id":1165,"date":"2026-04-10T14:42:28","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T11:42:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/?p=1165"},"modified":"2026-04-10T14:51:25","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T11:51:25","slug":"iran-savasinin-orta-doguya-etkileri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/?p=1165","title":{"rendered":"\u0130RAN SAVA\u015eI\u2019NIN ORTA DO\u011eU\u2019YA ETK\u0130LER\u0130"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Duygu DERSAN ORHAN<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in 28 \u015eubat 2026\u2019da \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik olarak ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 operasyon ani bir krizden ziyade uzun s\u00fcredir devam eden gerilimlerin bir sonucudur. Uzun y\u0131llard\u0131r \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 ve rejimini hedef alan ABD ve \u0130srail, 2023 Gazze Sava\u015f\u0131 ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki Hamas, Hizbullah gibi m\u00fcttefiklerini hedef ald\u0131, b\u00f6lgede n\u00fcfuz m\u00fccadelesi ve vekil akt\u00f6rler \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar giderek sertle\u015fti. Haziran Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te, diplomatik mekanizmalar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k dengesinin a\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 sonucunda \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yeni ve kapsaml\u0131 askeri operasyonlar ba\u015flat\u0131ld\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan kapat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik etkileri t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya taraf\u0131ndan derin bir \u015fekilde hissediliyor. Ancak kendilerini bir ate\u015f \u00e7emberinin ortas\u0131nda bulan Orta Do\u011fu \u00fclkeleri sadece ekonomik olarak de\u011fil sava\u015f\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik, siyasi ve sosyal boyutlar\u0131 ba\u011flam\u0131nda da en yo\u011fun etkileriyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya.&nbsp; Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u0130ran merkezli sava\u015f\u0131n b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerine ve Orta Do\u011fu g\u00fcvenlik mimarisine ve ittifaklara etkisini analiz etmek \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD-\u0130srail ortak operasyonlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak konvansiyonel bir sava\u015f yerine asimetrik ve \u00e7ok katmanl\u0131 bir strateji benimsemedi\u011fi g\u00f6zlemlendi. \u0130lk olarak, do\u011frudan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada dezavantajl\u0131 oldu\u011fu alanlar\u0131 telafi etmek amac\u0131yla, \u201calan geni\u015fletme\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na dayanarak kendi b\u00f6lgesinde Amerikan unsurlar\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00fcslerini hedef ald\u0131. \u0130ran, \u0130srail\u2019e do\u011frudan sald\u0131r\u0131lara ek olarak b\u00f6lgedeki ABD asker\u00ee \u00fcslerini hedef alarak Basra K\u00f6rfezi ve \u00f6tesine balistik f\u00fczeler f\u0131rlatt\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n takip etti\u011fi ikinci askeri strateji, b\u00f6lgedeki devlet-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 akt\u00f6rler olan vekil g\u00fc\u00e7lerini sava\u015fa dahil etmek oldu.&nbsp; Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki Hizbullah&#8217;\u0131n temel motivasyonu, \u0130ran&#8217;a kar\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lan sava\u015f\u0131 L\u00fcbnan cephesine yayarak \u0130srail&#8217;i stratejik bir bask\u0131 alt\u0131na almaya dayand\u0131. Yemen\u2019de ise \u0130ran destekli Husiler K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de gemilere sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenleyerek, k\u00fcresel ticareti etkiledi. Buna paralel olarak \u0130ran, Husileri devreye sokarak K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019i Aden K\u00f6rfezine ba\u011flayan Babulmendeb Bo\u011faz\u0131n\u0131 kapatma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde tehditler savurdu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fiili olarak g\u00fcvenlik riski alt\u0131nda olan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, \u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131 esnas\u0131nda izledi\u011fi \u201caktif tarafs\u0131zl\u0131k\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlanan d\u0131\u015f politika stratejisi resmi olarak sava\u015fa taraf olmamaya ancak \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d stratejisi izlemek yerine diplomatik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretmeye dayan\u0131yor. Ankara, hem ABD-\u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ele\u015ftiriyor, hem de \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgeyi istikrars\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131ran sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131n\u0131yor. Sava\u015f s\u00fcresinde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin NATO \u00fcyesi olarak Bat\u0131 ile ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011fu, NATO\u2019nun hava savunma sistemlerini aktif olarak kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. \u0130ran\u2019dan gelen balistik f\u00fczeler T\u00fcrk hava sahas\u0131na girdi. NATO sistemleri taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc resmi kanallar taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Yo\u011fun bir mekik diplomasisi y\u00fcr\u00fcten D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Hakan Fidan ate\u015fkes giri\u015fimlerinde yer ald\u0131. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, T\u00fcrkiye, ABD ve \u0130ran aras\u0131nda denge kurma gibi zor bir s\u0131navla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131. Sava\u015f\u0131n, enerji ithalat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131, k\u0131r\u0131lgan T\u00fcrk ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumsuz ekonomik etkileri ortada. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin do\u011frudan sava\u015fta olmasa bile \u201criskli b\u00f6lge\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 turizm gelirlerinde de bir azalmaya yol a\u00e7abilir. Her krizin arkas\u0131nda f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n da olabilece\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011finden hareketle, \u0130ran krizi s\u00fcresince gerek i\u00e7 kamuoyu gerekse d\u0131\u015f yorumcular taraf\u0131ndan ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir diplomasi stratejisi izledi\u011fine dair genel bir kan\u0131 olu\u015fan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin uzun s\u00fcredir d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131 ta\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturan b\u00f6lgesel liderlik ve stratejik otonomi vizyonunu sava\u015f sonras\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilece\u011fine dair bir de\u011ferlendirmede bulunabiliriz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda ya\u015fanan krizin alternatif enerji hatlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirmesi de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin enerji merkezi olmas\u0131 iddias\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren bir geli\u015fme olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130ran&#8217;da ya\u015fanan sava\u015f, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerini g\u00fcvenlik, ekonomik istikrar, enerji piyasalar\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015f politika davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 anlam\u0131nda \u00e7ok y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir \u015fekilde etkiledi. K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri, sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca taraflar\u0131 olmasa da b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde co\u011frafi yak\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131, stratejik altyap\u0131lar\u0131 ve ABD ile kurduklar\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik ortakl\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n akt\u00f6rleri haline geldi. En \u00f6nemli etkilerden biri, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lara do\u011frudan maruz kalmas\u0131 oldu. \u0130ran, sadece K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki ABD askeri tesislerine de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerindeki kritik altyap\u0131 ve sivil b\u00f6lgelere de f\u00fcze ve insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenledi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131&#8217;ndaki aksakl\u0131klar, petrol ihracat\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olan K\u00f6rfez ekonomilerini olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkiledi. Sald\u0131r\u0131ya u\u011fram\u0131\u015f olmalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri, gerginli\u011fin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na \u00f6ncelik vererek do\u011frudan askeri misillemeden b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131lar. Sava\u015f, K\u00f6rfez\u2019in uzun s\u00fcredir var olan \u201cg\u00fcvenli bir ekonomi merkezi\u201d imaj\u0131n\u0131 temelden sarsarak cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n ve d\u0131\u015f g\u00fcvenlik garantilerinin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Sava\u015f\u0131n K\u00f6rfez\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmler yaratmas\u0131 muhtemel g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde, K\u00f6rfez\u2019de savunma harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n azalmas\u0131n\u0131, ekonomide hidrokarbon ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131na var\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyebiliriz. \u0130ran \u0130slam Devrimi sonras\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n rejim ihrac\u0131 stratejisinden ve \u015eii merkezli politikalar\u0131ndan yo\u011fun tehdit alg\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenliklerini tamamen ABD\u2019ye emanet eden K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin, savunma politikalar\u0131nda da \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmeye gitmesi g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131, L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lgan siyasi yap\u0131s\u0131, ekonomik \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n hem ulusal hem de b\u00f6lgesel bir akt\u00f6r olarak \u00fcstlendi\u011fi merkezi rol nedeniyle istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 artt\u0131rd\u0131. Sava\u015f, \u0130ran destekli Hizbullah&#8217;\u0131n \u0130srail&#8217;e roket atmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 2 Mart&#8217;ta L\u00fcbnan&#8217;a s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. \u0130srail buna geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 hava operasyonlar\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verdi. Taraflar aras\u0131nda yeni imzalanan ate\u015fkesin L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131 kapsamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddias\u0131yla, \u0130srail, G\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na devam ediyor. Bu durum hem L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019la olan ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131na hem de \u0130srail\u2019in oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ate\u015fkes s\u00fcrecinde, \u0130ran\u2019dan L\u00fcbnan\u2019a kayd\u0131rmas\u0131na ve operasyonlar\u0131n \u015fiddetini artt\u0131rmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131, kom\u015fusu Irak\u2019\u0131 b\u00f6lgedeki stratejik a\u00e7\u0131dan en savunmas\u0131z ve i\u00e7 dinamikleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en k\u0131r\u0131lgan devletlerden biri haline getirdi. Co\u011frafi yak\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131, par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f siyasi yap\u0131s\u0131 ve hem \u0130ran hem de ABD ile olan derin ba\u011flar\u0131 nedeniyle Irak, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n etkilerinin en \u015fiddetli \u015fekilde hissedildi\u011fi \u00fclkelerin ba\u015f\u0131nda geliyor. Di\u011fer taraftan \u0130ran\u2019da ruhani lider de\u011fi\u015fiminin, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, Irak\u2019taki \u015eii kimli\u011fi \u00fczerindeki etkisinin nas\u0131l \u015fekillenece\u011fine dair soru i\u015faretlerine neden oluyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Suriye ise i\u00e7 sava\u015f yorgunu bir devlet olarak kendisini geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n merkezinde bulmu\u015f durumda. G\u00fcvenlik endi\u015feleri ile, L\u00fcbnan ve Irak s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131na askeri takviye sevk etti ancak askeri se\u00e7ene\u011fe ba\u015fvurmad\u0131. Suriye de enerji krizinden yo\u011fun bir bi\u00e7imde etkilenmi\u015f durumda. \u0130srail tehdidinin halen devam etti\u011fi \u00fclkede, d\u0131\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131mlara ili\u015fkin beklentiler belirsiz ta\u015f\u0131yor. Mevcut durum, Suriye\u2019nin yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve sava\u015f\u0131n yaralar\u0131n\u0131 sarmas\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkilemesine neden olacakt\u0131r.&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Orta Do\u011fu, tarihsel olarak hassas g\u00fcvenlik yap\u0131lar\u0131, y\u00fcksek jeopolitik rekabet ve ideolojik b\u00f6l\u00fcnmelerle karakterize edilen bir b\u00f6lgedir. \u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, Ortado\u011fu\u2019da bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc tetikleyerek sadece \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ortam\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda b\u00f6lgesel siyasetin genel yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131, g\u00fcvenlik d\u00fczenlemelerini ve ittifak olu\u015fumlar\u0131n\u0131 da yeniden \u015fekillendirmesini bekleyebiliriz. Sa\u011flanan ate\u015fkes her ne kadar k\u0131sa vadeli bir nefes alma alan\u0131 sunsa da b\u00f6lgedeki yap\u0131sal rekabet dinamikleri, vek\u00e2let sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcreklili\u011fi ve kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00fcvensizlik ortam\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda son derece k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir nitelik ta\u015f\u0131makta.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Duygu DERSAN ORHAN ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in 28 \u015eubat 2026\u2019da \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik olarak ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 operasyon ani bir krizden ziyade uzun s\u00fcredir devam eden gerilimlerin bir sonucudur. Uzun y\u0131llard\u0131r \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 ve rejimini hedef alan ABD ve \u0130srail, 2023 Gazze Sava\u015f\u0131 ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki Hamas, Hizbullah gibi m\u00fcttefiklerini hedef ald\u0131, b\u00f6lgede n\u00fcfuz m\u00fccadelesi ve vekil [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":1168,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,26,30,27],"tags":[],"series":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1165"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1165"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1165\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1167,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1165\/revisions\/1167"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1168"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1165"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1165"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1165"},{"taxonomy":"series","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fseries&post=1165"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}