{"id":1215,"date":"2026-06-11T15:20:38","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T12:20:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/?p=1215"},"modified":"2026-06-11T15:20:39","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T12:20:39","slug":"kafkasyada-yeniden-dugum-mu-cozum-mu-ermenistan-secimleri-ve-bolgenin-gelecegi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/?p=1215","title":{"rendered":"Kafkasya&#8217;da Yeniden D\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm m\u00fc, \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm m\u00fc? Ermenistan Se\u00e7imleri ve B\u00f6lgenin Gelece\u011fi"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>\u0130lgar Seyidov<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 1991 y\u0131l\u0131nda ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ilan eden Ermenistan, Birinci Karaba\u011f Sava\u015f\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n deste\u011fiyle Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 hukuk taraf\u0131ndan tan\u0131nan topraklar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 20\u2019sini i\u015fgal etti. Bu tarihten itibaren Rusya ile derin ili\u015fkiler geli\u015ftiren Ermenistan, Azerbaycan ve T\u00fcrkiye ile kapal\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar nedeniyle b\u00f6lgesel izolasyon i\u00e7inde kald\u0131. Bu durum, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda ya\u015fanan \u0130kinci Karaba\u011f Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019na kadar devam etti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>44 g\u00fcn s\u00fcren sava\u015f sonucunda Azerbaycan, Karaba\u011f \u00fczerindeki kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden sa\u011flad\u0131 ve b\u00f6ylece Kafkasya\u2019da uzun y\u0131llard\u0131r \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fcz kalan \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00f6zellikle 2018\u2019de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen Kadife Devrim sonras\u0131nda iktidara gelen Nikol Pa\u015finyan\u2019\u0131n rol\u00fc yads\u0131namaz. Nitekim Azerbaycan Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 \u0130lham Aliyev ile Ermenistan Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Nikol Pa\u015finyan, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda Beyaz Saray\u2019da bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 imzalayarak Kafkasya\u2019da kal\u0131c\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n tesis edilmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde tarihi bir ad\u0131m att\u0131lar. Bu geli\u015fme, b\u00f6lgesel istikrar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pa\u015finyan\u2019\u0131n bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 ve demokratikle\u015fme s\u00fcrecinde uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 politikalar, Azerbaycan ile normalle\u015fme s\u00fcrecini h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131rken T\u00fcrkiye ile ili\u015fkilerin iyile\u015ftirilmesine de katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131. 2021 se\u00e7imlerini de kazanarak iktidar\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftiren Pa\u015finyan, b\u00f6ylece Ermenistan\u2019\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bu yana Rusya ile s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc geleneksel d\u0131\u015f politika \u00e7izgisinden uzakla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 daha da h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>7 Haziran 2026 se\u00e7imleri, yakla\u015f\u0131k 3 milyon n\u00fcfusa sahip Ermenistan i\u00e7in son derece kritik bir d\u00f6neme\u00e7 niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yordu. Bu se\u00e7imler, ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00fclkenin Rusya ile mi yoksa Bat\u0131 (ABD ve Avrupa Birli\u011fi) ile mi daha yak\u0131n ili\u015fkiler kuraca\u011f\u0131na dair stratejik bir tercih olarak da g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Se\u00e7im yar\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bir tarafta Ba\u015fbakan Nikol Pa\u015finyan\u2019\u0131n liderli\u011findeki Sivil S\u00f6zle\u015fme Partisi bulunurken, di\u011fer tarafta Rusya yanl\u0131s\u0131 politikalar\u0131 savunan ve hem Rusya hem de Ermenistan vatanda\u015f\u0131 olan oligark Samvel Karapetyan\u2019\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti\u011fi G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Ermenistan Blo\u011fu yer al\u0131yordu. Karaba\u011f politikalar\u0131 nedeniyle Pa\u015finyan\u2019\u0131 sert \u015fekilde ele\u015ftiren ve Rusya\u2019dan uzakla\u015fmay\u0131 Ermenistan\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan riskli g\u00f6ren eski Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Robert Ko\u00e7aryan\u2019\u0131n liderli\u011findeki Ermenistan Blo\u011fu da \u00f6nemli rakipler aras\u0131nda bulunuyordu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Garik Tsarukyan\u2019\u0131n liderli\u011findeki M\u00fcreffeh Ermenistan Partisi ise di\u011fer muhalif akt\u00f6rlere k\u0131yasla daha uzla\u015fmac\u0131 ve bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l bir s\u00f6ylem benimsiyordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pa\u015finyan\u2019\u0131n iktidarda kalmas\u0131ndan memnun olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aylard\u0131r a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koyan Moskova y\u00f6netimi ise Ko\u00e7aryan ve Karapetyan \u00e7izgisine yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131yordu. Rusya Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Vladimir Putin, Ermenistan\u2019\u0131n Avrasya Ekonomik Birli\u011fi ile Avrupa Birli\u011fi aras\u0131nda bir tercih yapmak zorunda oldu\u011funu belirterek, \u201c\u0130ki sandalyede ayn\u0131 anda oturmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil\u201d mesaj\u0131n\u0131 vermi\u015fti. Moskova, bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te Erivan \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 da devreye soktu. Rusya D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc Maria Zaharova, Avrupa Birli\u011fi \u00fcyelik s\u00fcrecinin devam etmesi halinde Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ermenistan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik enerji ve di\u011fer destek politikalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irebilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k \u015fekilde ifade etti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Di\u011fer taraftan ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Pa\u015finyan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik destek mesajlar\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekerken, Avrupa Birli\u011fi de Ermenistan h\u00fck\u00fcmetine deste\u011fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 4 May\u0131s\u2019ta Avrupa Siyasi Toplulu\u011fu Zirvesi ilk kez Erivan\u2019da d\u00fczenlendi ve Ermenistan\u2019\u0131n Avrupa y\u00f6nelimine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek verildi. Zirvede, Ermenistan vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda Avrupa \u00fclkelerine vizesiz seyahat edebilmelerine y\u00f6nelik olumlu mesajlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Daha da dikkat \u00e7ekici olan ise Azerbaycan Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 \u0130lham Aliyev\u2019in zirveye video ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131yla kat\u0131larak Pa\u015finyan\u2019\u0131 ev sahipli\u011fi nedeniyle tebrik etmesi ve iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinin art\u0131k bir \u201cger\u00e7eklik\u201d haline geldi\u011fini vurgulamas\u0131yd\u0131. Aliyev ayr\u0131ca Ermenistan\u2019a petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ihracat\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek ekonomik ili\u015fkilerin geli\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sinyalini verdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pa\u015finyan, Ermenistan topraklar\u0131ndan ge\u00e7erek Nah\u00e7\u0131van\u2019a ula\u015facak Zengezur Koridoru projesine s\u0131cak bak\u0131yor. Ermenistan\u2019\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye ile Orta Asya aras\u0131nda bir ba\u011flant\u0131 noktas\u0131 olma hedefi de bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00dclke ayr\u0131ca gelecekte T\u00fcrkmenistan\u2019dan Azerbaycan \u00fczerinden ta\u015f\u0131nabilecek do\u011fal gaz\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131nda transit \u00fclke olmay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ancak b\u00f6lgede h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Rusya etkisi bulunuyor. Ermenistan\u2019\u0131n neredeyse t\u00fcm stratejik sekt\u00f6rlerinde Rus sermayesinin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmsenmeyecek d\u00fczeyde. Bu sermayenin ani \u015fekilde \u00e7ekilmesi, Ermenistan ekonomisinde ciddi daralmaya yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu nedenle \u00fclke ekonomik olarak h\u00e2l\u00e2 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde Rusya\u2019ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 durumda ve d\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnyaya eri\u015fimini esas olarak G\u00fcrcistan ve \u0130ran \u00fczerinden sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Ancak son d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fanan jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ve \u0130ran \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131, Ermenistan\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran \u00fczerinden d\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnyaya a\u00e7\u0131lma kapasitesini de olumsuz etkiliyor. Bu geli\u015fmeler, \u00fclkenin ekonomik potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131rken Azerbaycan ile ili\u015fkilerin geli\u015ftirilmesini ve \u00f6zellikle T\u00fcrkiye s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 Ermenistan a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha da \u00f6nemli hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak, 7 Haziran\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen se\u00e7imlerde Ba\u015fbakan Nikol Pa\u015finyan liderli\u011findeki parti oylar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 57\u2019sini alarak parlamentodaki \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu korumay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131. Se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk konu\u015fmada kapsay\u0131c\u0131 ve uzla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir s\u00f6ylem benimseyen Pa\u015finyan, hem Rusya hem de Avrupa Birli\u011fi ile ili\u015fkilerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra T\u00fcrkiye ve Azerbaycan\u2019la normalle\u015fme s\u00fcrecine ili\u015fkin olumlu mesajlar verdi. Rusya ile ili\u015fkilerin san\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar sorunlu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayan Pa\u015finyan, ilk resm\u00ee yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ziyaretini Moskova\u2019ya, ard\u0131ndan ise Br\u00fcksel\u2019e ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klayarak d\u0131\u015f politikada denge aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011finin sinyalini verdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130lgar Seyidov Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 1991 y\u0131l\u0131nda ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ilan eden Ermenistan, Birinci Karaba\u011f Sava\u015f\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n deste\u011fiyle Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 hukuk taraf\u0131ndan tan\u0131nan topraklar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 20\u2019sini i\u015fgal etti. Bu tarihten itibaren Rusya ile derin ili\u015fkiler geli\u015ftiren Ermenistan, Azerbaycan ve T\u00fcrkiye ile kapal\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar nedeniyle b\u00f6lgesel izolasyon i\u00e7inde kald\u0131. Bu durum, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda ya\u015fanan \u0130kinci [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":1216,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"series":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1215"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1215"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1215\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1217,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1215\/revisions\/1217"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1216"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1215"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1215"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1215"},{"taxonomy":"series","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fseries&post=1215"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}