{"id":1261,"date":"2026-10-05T12:52:43","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T09:52:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/?p=1261"},"modified":"2026-10-05T12:53:43","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T09:53:43","slug":"antalyanin-iklim-sinavi-cop31den-ne-beklemeli-ne-beklememeliyiz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/?p=1261","title":{"rendered":"Antalya\u2019n\u0131n \u0130klim S\u0131nav\u0131: COP31\u2019den Ne Beklemeli Ne Beklememeliyiz?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Ayg\u00fcn Karl\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130klim krizinin art\u0131k yaln\u0131zca de\u011fi\u015fen hava olaylar\u0131 veya artan ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131klarla tan\u0131mlanan izole bir ekolojik sorun olmaktan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p k\u00fcresel anlamda kapitalizmin, jeopolitik dengelerin ve \u00fcretim-t\u00fcketim a\u011flar\u0131n\u0131n merkezinde yer alan sistemik bir kriz oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fi, uluslararas\u0131 siyasetin ana eksenini geri d\u00f6n\u00fclemez bi\u00e7imde \u015fekillendiriyor. Bu devasa ve \u00e7ok katmanl\u0131 krizin y\u00f6netilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 en b\u00fcy\u00fck diplomatik arena ise her y\u0131l d\u00fczenlenen Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi Taraflar Konferanslar\u0131; yani COP (Conference of Parties) zirveleri. Kas\u0131m 2026\u2019da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de d\u00fczenlenecek olan ve Antalyan\u0131n ev sahipli\u011fini \u00fcstlenece\u011fi COP31\u2019in hem T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin diplomatik kapasitesini sergileyece\u011fi bir alan olmas\u0131 hem de k\u00fcresel iklim rejiminin, ka\u011f\u0131t \u00fczerinde kusursuz g\u00f6r\u00fcnen taahh\u00fctlerden somut bir ekonomik ve politik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme ge\u00e7ip ge\u00e7emeyece\u011fini s\u0131nanaca\u011f\u0131 devasa bir laboratuvar i\u015flevi g\u00f6rmesi beklenmekte. Ekosistemin ta\u015f\u0131ma kapasitesinin mutlak s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131na dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu evrede insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ortak gelece\u011fi, bu zirvelerin a\u011f\u0131r i\u015fleyen b\u00fcrokratik labirentlerinde \u015fekillendiriliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Herhangi bir mekanizman\u0131n temel i\u015fleyi\u015fini anlamak, ondan ne bekleyip ne beklemeyece\u011fimizi kavramak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritiktir. COP zirvelerinin \u00f6nemi, 1992 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki Rio Yery\u00fcz\u00fc Zirvesi&#8217;ne dayanan Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi \u00c7er\u00e7eve S\u00f6zle\u015fmesi\u2019ne (BMD\u0130\u00c7S) taraf olan 190\u2019\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n \u00fclkenin her y\u0131l bir araya geldi\u011fi en \u00fcst d\u00fczey karar alma organ\u0131 olmas\u0131ndan kaynaklanmaktad\u0131r. Temel amac\u0131 atmosfere sal\u0131nan sera gaz\u0131 emisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 reg\u00fcle ederek k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nmay\u0131 Sanayi Devrimi \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla 1.5\u00b0C e\u015fi\u011finde tutmak ve iklim krizinin y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 etkilerine kar\u015f\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 bir dayan\u0131\u015fma, uyum ve finansman a\u011f\u0131 \u00f6rmektir. Ancak COP, bir grup \u00e7evrecinin d\u00fcnyay\u0131 kurtarmak i\u00e7in topland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir platformdan ziyade; enerji jeopoliti\u011finin, k\u00fcresel ticaret yollar\u0131n\u0131n, teknoloji transferinin ve kalk\u0131nma modellerinin k\u0131yas\u0131ya \u00e7arp\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir k\u00fcresel pazar yeri olma \u00f6zelli\u011fini de ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. Kararlar\u0131n oyda\u015fma (konsens\u00fcs) ile al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu yap\u0131da ekonomisi tamamen petrole dayal\u0131 bir K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkesinin itiraz\u0131 veya devasa k\u00f6m\u00fcr rezervlerine sahip bir Asya devinin vetosu, deniz seviyesinin y\u00fckselmesiyle haritadan silinme tehlikesi ya\u015fayan bir ada \u00fclkesinin hayatta kalma m\u00fccadelesini engelleyebilmektedir. Bu yap\u0131sal hantall\u0131k, zirvelerin neden s\u0131kl\u0131kla en zay\u0131f halkan\u0131n dahi onay verebilece\u011fi, i\u00e7i g\u00f6rece bo\u015falt\u0131lm\u0131\u015f uzla\u015f\u0131 metinleriyle sonu\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da a\u00e7\u0131klamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bir COP zirvesinin anatomisine mek\u00e2nsal ve i\u015flevsel olarak bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, birbirine te\u011fet ge\u00e7en ama dinamikleri tamamen farkl\u0131 iki ayr\u0131 evrenin in\u015fa edildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir: Mavi Alan (Blue Zone) ve Ye\u015fil Alan (Green Zone). Do\u011frudan Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler denetiminde olan Mavi Alan, zirvenin resmi diplomatik omurgas\u0131d\u0131r. Akreditasyonu olmayan akt\u00f6rlerin giremedi\u011fi bu b\u00f6lge; devlet ba\u015fkanlar\u0131n\u0131n, bakanlar\u0131n, resmi delegasyonlar\u0131n ve uluslararas\u0131 b\u00fcrokratlar\u0131n ulusal taahh\u00fctleri masaya s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, kay\u0131p ve zarar fonlar\u0131n\u0131n kim taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6denece\u011finin tart\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve anla\u015fma metinlerindeki tek bir kelimenin (a\u015famal\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f m\u0131, yoksa a\u015famal\u0131 azalt\u0131m m\u0131, gibi) g\u00fcnlerce m\u00fczakere edildi\u011fi kapal\u0131 bir yap\u0131d\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ev sahibi \u00fclkenin y\u00f6netti\u011fi Ye\u015fil Alan ise s\u00fcrecin sivil, ticari ve toplumsal vitrinini olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Sivil toplum kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n, iklim aktivistlerinin, akademisyenlerin, yerel y\u00f6netimlerin ve \u015firketlerin bir araya geldi\u011fi bu a\u00e7\u0131k alan, teoride iklim m\u00fccadelesinin tabandan gelen sesini temsil etmektedir. Ancak pratikte Ye\u015fil Alan giderek devasa kurumsal pavyonlarda, yeni nesil ye\u015fil teknolojilerin pazarland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ticari sunumlar\u0131n yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck sermaye gruplar\u0131n\u0131n halkla ili\u015fkiler faaliyetlerinin y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00e7ok uluslu bir fuar alan\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f durumdad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Antalya\u2019daki COP31, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu k\u00fcresel m\u00fczakere masas\u0131nda kural koyuculardan biri olarak konumlanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamaktad\u0131r. Bu do\u011frultuda \u00c7evre, \u015eehircilik ve \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n koordinasyonunda y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen s\u00fcrece T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck sermaye gruplar\u0131 resmi ortakl\u0131klarla entegre edilmi\u015ftir. Sanayinin karbonsuzla\u015fmas\u0131, d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel ekonomi modellerine ge\u00e7i\u015f ve ye\u015fil teknolojilerin \u00f6l\u00e7eklendirilmesi s\u00fcrecinde&nbsp;holdingler ve bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc&nbsp;k\u00fcresel i\u015f orta\u011f\u0131 veya k\u00fcresel bankac\u0131l\u0131k partneri gibi s\u0131fatlarla konumland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130klim krizinin maliyetinin devasa boyutlara ula\u015fmas\u0131, kamu kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc tek ba\u015f\u0131na finanse etmesini imk\u00e2ns\u0131z k\u0131lmaktaysa da k\u00fcresel sermayenin s\u00fcrece dahil olmas\u0131yla birlikte as\u0131l k\u0131r\u0131lma noktas\u0131n\u0131, bu kurumlar\u0131n fosil yak\u0131tlara sa\u011flanan finansman\u0131 ne h\u0131zda kesecekleri ve kendi devasa tedarik zincirlerinde ne kadar radikal bir karbon diyetine girecekleri olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>COP31\u2019in ajandas\u0131n\u0131, \u00fcstlenece\u011fi misyonu ve \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 tam olarak anlayabilmek i\u00e7in bir \u00f6nceki dura\u011fa yani Kas\u0131m 2025&#8217;te Brezilya\u2019n\u0131n Bel\u00e9m kentinde d\u00fczenlenen COP30\u2019a mercek tutmak elzemdir. Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 10. y\u0131ld\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcne denk gelen COP30; \u00fclkelerin g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f Ulusal Katk\u0131 Beyanlar\u0131n\u0131 (NDC) sunduklar\u0131, fosil yak\u0131tlardan kademeli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n takvimlendirilmesi konusunda yo\u011fun \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen (fakat bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc tam olarak toplanamayan) y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fcz milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k iklim finansman\u0131 hedefinin yeniden masaya yat\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir hedefler ve vaatler zirvesiydi. K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney ile K\u00fcresel Kuzey aras\u0131ndaki tarihsel sorumluluk tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n damga vurdu\u011fu Bel\u00e9m zirvesinden Antalya\u2019ya miras kalan en b\u00fcy\u00fck mesele ise t\u00fcm bu vaatlerin pratik birer eylem plan\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fme zorunlulu\u011fudur. COP31, Brezilya&#8217;da ka\u011f\u0131da d\u00f6k\u00fclen emisyon azalt\u0131m s\u00f6zlerinin nas\u0131l finanse edilece\u011finin, Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 6. maddesi kapsam\u0131nda ulusal karbon piyasalar\u0131ndaki d\u00fczenleme bo\u015fluklar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l kapat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ve karbon yo\u011fun sekt\u00f6rlerde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan kitleler i\u00e7in adil ge\u00e7i\u015f mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7ekte nas\u0131l finanse edilece\u011finin tart\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 keskin bir hesapla\u015fma zirvesi olmak zorundad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>T\u00fcm bu devasa b\u00fcrokratik i\u015fleyi\u015fin, sunulan raporlar\u0131n ve diplomatik ba\u015far\u0131 metinlerinin \u00f6tesinde COP mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131sal bir \u00e7eli\u015fkiyle ve derin bir sistemik ikiy\u00fczl\u00fcl\u00fckle malul oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fi art\u0131k hal\u0131 alt\u0131na s\u00fcp\u00fcr\u00fclemeyecek kadar a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. K\u00fcresel iklim zirveleri, her ge\u00e7en y\u0131l d\u00fcnyay\u0131 mevcut kriz noktas\u0131na s\u00fcr\u00fckleyen ekonomik akt\u00f6rlerin imajlar\u0131n\u0131 tazeledikleri, s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik s\u00f6ylemlerinin i\u00e7ini bo\u015faltarak kendilerini aklad\u0131klar\u0131 devasa bir ye\u015fil badanac\u0131l\u0131k platformlar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmektedir. \u0130klim m\u00fczakerelerinin yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 Mavi Alan koridorlar\u0131nda yerli halklar\u0131n veya iklim krizinden en \u00e7ok etkilenen ada \u00fclkelerinin delegelerinden say\u0131ca katbekat fazla fosil yak\u0131t lobicisinin akredite olmas\u0131, sistemin kime hizmet etti\u011fine dair en somut veridir. Ye\u015fil Alanda, net s\u0131f\u0131r ve karbon n\u00f6tr gelecek \u00fczerine f\u00fct\u00fcristik ve g\u00f6rkemli sunumlar yapan k\u00fcresel \u015firketlerin ve onlara milyarlarca dolar kredi sa\u011flayan uluslararas\u0131 bankalar\u0131n, ayn\u0131 anda arka planda k\u00f6m\u00fcr madencili\u011fini, yeni petrol sondajlar\u0131n\u0131 ve derin deniz madencili\u011fini fonlamaya devam etmesi, iklim diplomasisinin me\u015fruiyetini k\u00f6k\u00fcnden sarsmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>COP mimarisi; ekolojik s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 merkeze alan radikal yasal d\u00fczenlemeler dayatmak, karbonu kayna\u011f\u0131nda b\u0131rakmay\u0131 kurala ba\u011flamak ve kirletenleri uluslararas\u0131 hukuk \u00f6n\u00fcnde sorumlu tutmak yerine mevcut ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve sermaye birikimi modelini ye\u015fil bir cila ile s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmenin yollar\u0131n\u0131 arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece \u00e7aresiz kalmaya mahkumdur. Karbon dengeleme piyasalar\u0131 gibi mekanizmalar, \u015firketlere emisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek yerine d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ba\u015fka bir ucundaki orman projelerine para \u00f6deyerek \u00e7evresel g\u00fcnah \u00e7\u0131karma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunmakta ve as\u0131l sorunu \u00f6telemektedir. Bu bak\u0131mdan mesele, atmosfere sal\u0131nan zehrin hangi esnek mekanizmalarla, hangi istisnalarla tolere edilece\u011fi veya karbon kotalar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 de\u011fildir. As\u0131l y\u00fczle\u015filmesi gereken ger\u00e7ek, s\u00fcrekli ve s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye odaklanm\u0131\u015f k\u00fcresel ekonomik sistemin, gezegenin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 fiziksel ve biyolojik kapasitesiyle a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ba\u011fda\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Bu yap\u0131sal \u00e7eli\u015fki masaya yat\u0131r\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcddet\u00e7e, zirvelerden \u00e7\u0131kan ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 metinler ve at\u0131lan imzalar, insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ekolojik y\u0131k\u0131ma do\u011fru yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yolculu\u011fun h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 kesmeyen ve sadece o yolculu\u011fu biraz daha katlan\u0131labilir g\u00f6stermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan oyalama taktiklerinden ibaret kalacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ayg\u00fcn Karl\u0131 \u0130klim krizinin art\u0131k yaln\u0131zca de\u011fi\u015fen hava olaylar\u0131 veya artan ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131klarla tan\u0131mlanan izole bir ekolojik sorun olmaktan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p k\u00fcresel anlamda kapitalizmin, jeopolitik dengelerin ve \u00fcretim-t\u00fcketim a\u011flar\u0131n\u0131n merkezinde yer alan sistemik bir kriz oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fi, uluslararas\u0131 siyasetin ana eksenini geri d\u00f6n\u00fclemez bi\u00e7imde \u015fekillendiriyor. Bu devasa ve \u00e7ok katmanl\u0131 krizin y\u00f6netilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 en b\u00fcy\u00fck diplomatik [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":1264,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26,30,29],"tags":[],"series":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1261"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1261"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1261\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1263,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1261\/revisions\/1263"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1264"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1261"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1261"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1261"},{"taxonomy":"series","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fseries&post=1261"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}