{"id":823,"date":"2024-11-27T11:16:11","date_gmt":"2024-11-27T08:16:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.weby.com.tr\/blog\/?p=823"},"modified":"2024-12-04T11:02:37","modified_gmt":"2024-12-04T08:02:37","slug":"2024-ankara-buyuksehir-belediye-baskanligi-secimi-oy-gecis-analizi-mansur-yavas-hangi-partilerden-ne-kadar-oy-aldi-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/?p=823","title":{"rendered":"\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2024 Ankara B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehir Belediye Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Se\u00e7imi Oy Ge\u00e7i\u015f Analizi: Mansur Yava\u015f Hangi Partilerden Ne Kadar Oy Ald\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Bilindi\u011fi \u00fczere, 31 Mart 2024 g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lan Mahalli \u0130dareler Se\u00e7imleri sonucunda Ankara B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehir Belediye Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imini, CHP aday\u0131 Mansur Yava\u015f, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda yap\u0131lan se\u00e7imde %50,93 olan oy oran\u0131n\u0131 %60,50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karmak suretiyle kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Mansur Yava\u015f\u2019\u0131n %50\u2019lerde olan oylar\u0131 nas\u0131l %60\u2019lara \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r? Mansur Yava\u015f ilave oylar\u0131 hangi partilerden alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda Ankara\u2019da kay\u0131tl\u0131 se\u00e7men say\u0131s\u0131 3.925.129 olup, bu se\u00e7menlerin %85,73\u2019\u00fc oy kullanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (CHP) aday\u0131 Mansur Yava\u015f, ge\u00e7erli oylar\u0131n %50,93\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc alarak se\u00e7imleri kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Adalet ve Kalk\u0131nma Partisi (AK Parti) aday\u0131 Mehmet \u00d6zhaseki ise %47,13 oy alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Saadet Partisi %1,04, Vatan Partisi %0,19 ve di\u011fer partiler toplamda %0,7 oran\u0131nda oy alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ad\u0131 ge\u00e7en se\u00e7imlerde \u201cdi\u011fer partiler\u201d kategorisinde Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z T\u00fcrkiye Partisi (BTP), T\u00fcrkiye Kom\u00fcnist Partisi (TKP), Demokratik Sol Parti (DSP) ve ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z adaylar yer alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca AK Parti, Milliyet\u00e7i Hareket Partisi (MHP) ile ortak aday \u00e7\u0131kararak se\u00e7imlere kat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2024 y\u0131l\u0131na gelindi\u011finde, Ankara\u2019daki kay\u0131tl\u0131 se\u00e7men say\u0131s\u0131 4.307.119\u2019a y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. Bu se\u00e7menlerin %79,34\u2019\u00fc sand\u0131\u011fa gitmi\u015ftir. Mansur Yava\u015f, CHP aday\u0131 olarak %60,50 oy alarak tekrar belediye ba\u015fkan\u0131 se\u00e7ilmi\u015ftir. AK Parti\u2019nin aday\u0131 Turgut Alt\u0131nok %31,68 oy al\u0131rken, Yeniden Refah Partisi %3,13, \u0130Y\u0130 Parti %0,91, Halklar\u0131n E\u015fitlik ve Demokrasi Partisi (DEM) ise %0,8 oy alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Di\u011fer partilere giden oylar %2,96 olarak kaydedilmi\u015ftir. 2024 se\u00e7imlerinde di\u011fer partiler kategorisinde Zafer Partisi, Memleket Partisi, Demokrasi ve At\u0131l\u0131m Partisi, T\u00fcrkiye Kom\u00fcnist Hareketi, Hak ve \u00d6zg\u00fcrl\u00fckler Partisi gibi \u00e7e\u015fitli partiler yer alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. AK Parti ve MHP, 2024 se\u00e7imlerinde de ortak aday \u00e7\u0131kararak se\u00e7im ittifak\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mansur Yava\u015f\u2019\u0131n 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda oylar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fczeyde artt\u0131rmak suretiyle se\u00e7imi kazanmas\u0131, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 se\u00e7imlerinde di\u011fer partilere oy veren ve ilk kez oy veren se\u00e7menlerden ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 oylar\u0131 merak konusu haline getirmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hasdemir, \u00c7amalan ve \u00dcner (Bask\u0131da) Ankara\u2019da bulunan 1.208 mahalleye ait se\u00e7im verilerinden yararlanarak, 2019 ve 2024 yerel se\u00e7imleri aras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen oy ge\u00e7i\u015flerini \u201cEkolojik \u00c7\u0131kar\u0131m Y\u00f6ntemi\u201d vas\u0131tas\u0131yla tahmin etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. Yap\u0131lan kapsaml\u0131 analiz, iki se\u00e7im aras\u0131nda partiler aras\u0131ndaki oy ge\u00e7i\u015flerini mahalle d\u00fczeyinde inceleyerek, se\u00e7men davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimleri ortaya koymaktad\u0131r. Oy ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin yo\u011funlu\u011funu ve y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rsel olarak \u00f6zetleyen Sankey Diyagram\u0131 \u015eekil 1\u2019de sunulmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u015eekil 1: <\/strong>Oy ge\u00e7i\u015flerine ait Sankey Diyagram\u0131<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oy ge\u00e7i\u015f analizi, iki se\u00e7im aras\u0131ndaki se\u00e7men davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri ortaya koymaktad\u0131r. 2019 se\u00e7imlerinde Adalet ve Kalk\u0131nma Partisi (AK Parti) aday\u0131na oy veren se\u00e7menlerin \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda da ayn\u0131 partiye sad\u0131k kalm\u0131\u015f olsa da, bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 tercihlere y\u00f6neldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. AK Parti se\u00e7menlerinin belirgin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc oy kullanmamay\u0131 tercih etmi\u015f, bir k\u0131sm\u0131 ise Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi\u2019ne (CHP) veya Yeniden Refah Partisi\u2019ne (YRP) y\u00f6nelmi\u015ftir. CHP se\u00e7menleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6nemli bir \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fun 2024 se\u00e7imlerinde de ayn\u0131 partiye ba\u011fl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zlemlenmi\u015ftir. Ancak k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir kesim, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda oy kullanmam\u0131\u015f ya da AK Parti ve YRP gibi farkl\u0131 partilere oy vermi\u015ftir. Bu durum, CHP se\u00e7menlerinin daha sad\u0131k bir davran\u0131\u015f sergiledi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. Sand\u0131\u011fa gitmeyen se\u00e7menler incelendi\u011finde, 2019\u2019da oy kullanmayanlar\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda da sand\u0131\u011fa gitmeme e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fu dikkat \u00e7ekmektedir. Ancak bu grup i\u00e7erisinde \u00f6zellikle CHP\u2019ye y\u00f6nelen se\u00e7menler oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Ayr\u0131ca, se\u00e7menlerden k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131 AK Parti ve di\u011fer partilere y\u00f6nelmi\u015ftir. 2019 se\u00e7imlerinde Saadet Partisi ve Vatan Partisi adaylar\u0131na oy veren se\u00e7menler de 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda farkl\u0131 partilere y\u00f6nelmi\u015flerdir. Saadet Partisi se\u00e7menlerinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131 AK Parti ve CHP\u2019ye oy verirken, Vatan Partisi se\u00e7menlerinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n oylar\u0131n\u0131n CHP\u2019ye, \u0130Y\u0130 Parti\u2019ye ve ge\u00e7ersiz oy kullan\u0131m\u0131na kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zlemlenmi\u015ftir. Tabloya ilk kez oy kullanan se\u00e7menler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2024 se\u00e7imlerinde kitlenin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn CHP\u2019yi tercih etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. \u0130lk kez oy kullanan se\u00e7menlerin di\u011fer bir k\u0131sm\u0131 ise AK Parti ve YRP\u2019ye y\u00f6nelmi\u015ftir. Oy ge\u00e7i\u015f analizi, se\u00e7imler aras\u0131ndaki oy ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k se\u00e7imlerde nas\u0131l bir se\u00e7men hareketlili\u011fi ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyarken, siyasi parti y\u00f6neticileri, ge\u00e7mi\u015f se\u00e7imlerin analizini yapmas\u0131nda ve se\u00e7im stratejilerini belirlemesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oy ge\u00e7i\u015f analizi tahminine g\u00f6re; 2019’da AK Parti aday\u0131na oy veren se\u00e7menlerin %54’\u00fc 2024’te de ayn\u0131 partiye oy vermi\u015ftir. AK Parti se\u00e7menlerinin %20’si 2024’te oy kullanmam\u0131\u015f, %16,6’s\u0131 CHP’ye, %2,6’s\u0131 ise YRP’ye y\u00f6nelmi\u015ftir. CHP aday\u0131na oy verenlerin %82,7’si 2024’te yine CHP’yi desteklemi\u015ftir. %10,5’i oy kullanmazken, %2,1’i AK Parti’ye, %1,1’i YRP’ye oy vermi\u015ftir.2019’da sand\u0131\u011fa gitmeyenlerin %58,8’i 2024’te de oy kullanmam\u0131\u015f, %23,5’i CHP’yi tercih etmi\u015ftir.2019’da Saadet Partisi’ne oy verenlerin %30,2’si AK Parti’ye, %28,2’si CHP’ye ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir. \u0130lk kez oy kullanan se\u00e7menlerin ise %46,5’i CHP, %26,6’s\u0131 AK Parti’yi tercih etmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kaynak\u00e7a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hasdemir, E., \u00c7amalan, \u00d6., & \u00dcner, M.M. (bask\u0131da). Ekolojik \u00c7\u0131kar\u0131m Y\u00f6ntemi:2024 Y\u0131l\u0131 Ankara B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehir Belediye Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Se\u00e7imi Oy Ge\u00e7i\u015f Analizi<\/strong>. Ankara Hac\u0131 Bayram Veli \u00dcniversitesi \u0130ktisadi ve \u0130dari Bilimler Fak\u00fcltesi Dergisi <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bilindi\u011fi \u00fczere, 31 Mart 2024 g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lan Mahalli \u0130dareler Se\u00e7imleri sonucunda Ankara B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehir Belediye Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imini, CHP aday\u0131 Mansur Yava\u015f, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda yap\u0131lan se\u00e7imde %50,93 olan oy oran\u0131n\u0131 %60,50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karmak suretiyle kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Mansur Yava\u015f\u2019\u0131n %50\u2019lerde olan oylar\u0131 nas\u0131l %60\u2019lara \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r? Mansur Yava\u015f ilave oylar\u0131 hangi partilerden alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":841,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[],"series":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/823"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=823"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/823\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":840,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/823\/revisions\/840"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/841"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=823"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=823"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=823"},{"taxonomy":"series","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.atilim.edu.tr\/manzara-politik\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fseries&post=823"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}