# Probabilistic Methods in Engineering (MDES618) Course Detail

Course Name Course Code Season Lecture Hours Application Hours Lab Hours Credit ECTS
Probabilistic Methods in Engineering MDES618 3 0 0 3 5
Pre-requisite Course(s)
N/A
Course Language English N/A Natural & Applied Sciences Master's Degree Face To Face Lecture. The aim of the course is to study basic methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics and to demonstrate the possible applications. Examples related to service systems, reliability, algorithms, and other subjects are given throughout the course. The course is constructed for students of engineering departments, using mathematics for its applications. The students who succeeded in this course; Find reliability functions and mean times to failure for systems of different types. Understand the notion of stochastic process and analyze different types of stochastic processes. Understand basic facts concerning Markov chains. Know special probability distributions such as Poisson, exponential, Erlang. Apply the methods of statistical inference. Basic notions of probability theory, reliability theory, notion of a stochastic process, Poisson processes, Markov chains, statistical inference.

### Weekly Subjects and Releated Preparation Studies

Week Subjects Preparation
1 Sample space, random events, probability. Conditional probability. Independence. Ch.1.1-1.10
2 Random variables and probability distributions. Random vectors. Ch. 2.3, 2.4, 3.1, 3.6
3 Reliability theory. Finding reliabilities of different systems. Redundancy. Ch. 3.6-3.7
4 Failure rate and hazard function. IFR/DFR distributions. Ch. 3.3
5 Definition and examples of stochastic processes, their types. Ch. 6.1, 6.2
6 The Poisson process and its generalizations Ch. 6.5, 6.4
7 Random incidence. Midterm I Ch. 6.7
8 Markov chains: Markov property, transition probabilities, transition graph. Chapman-Kolmogorov equations. Ch. 7.1, 7.2
9 Classification of states and limiting probabilities. Regular chains and equilibrium. Ch. 7.3
10 Absorbing Markov chains. Fundamental matrix. Ch. 7.9
11 Random samples. Estimators, their characteristics. Ch. 10.1-10.2
12 Point and interval estimation. Midterm II Ch.10.2.3
13 Hypothesis testing. The null and alternative hypotheses, type I and type II errors. One-sided and two-sided tests. Tests on the population mean. Ch. 10.3.1
14 Tests on the population variance. Goodness-of-fit tests Ch.10.3.3, 10.3.4
15 Overall review -
16 Final exam -

### Sources

Course Book 1. K. S. Trivedi, Probability and Statistics with Reliability, Queueing, and Computer Science Applications, 2nd Edition, Wiley, 2002. 2. Sheldon Ross, Introduction to Probability Models. Academic Press, 1994 3. T. Aven, U. Jensen, Stochastic models in reliability, Springer, 1999

### Evaluation System

Attendance/Participation - -
Laboratory - -
Application - -
Field Work - -
Special Course Internship - -
Quizzes/Studio Critics 2 20
Homework Assignments - -
Presentation - -
Project - -
Report - -
Seminar - -
Midterms Exams/Midterms Jury 2 40
Final Exam/Final Jury 1 40
Toplam 5 100
 Percentage of Semester Work 60 40 100

### Course Category

Core Courses X

### The Relation Between Course Learning Competencies and Program Qualifications

# Program Qualifications / Competencies Level of Contribution
1 2 3 4 5
1 Has the ability to apply scientific knowledge gained in the undergraduate education and to expand and extend knowledge in the same or in a different area.
2 Has the ability to obtain, to evaluate, to interpret and to apply information by doing scientific research.
3 Can apply gained knowledge and problem solving abilities in inter-disciplinary research.
4 Has the ability to work independently within research area, to state the problem, to develop solution techniques, to solve the problem, to evaluate the obtained results and to apply them when necessary.
5 Takes responsibility individually and as a team member to improve systematic approaches to produce solutions in unexpected complicated situations related to the area of study.
6 Can develop strategies, implement plans and principles on the area of study and can evaluate obtained results within the framework.
7 Can develop and extend the knowledge in the area and to use them with scientific, social and ethical responsibility.
8 Has the ability to follow recent developments within the area of research, to support research with scientific arguments and data, to communicate the information on the area of expertise in a systematically by means of written report and oral/visual presentation.
9 Has proficiency in English language and has the ability to communicate with colleagues and to follow the innovations in mathematics and related fields.
10 Has software and hardware knowledge in the area of expertise, and has proficient information and communication technology knowledge.
11 Has professional ethical consciousness and responsibility which takes into account the universal and social dimensions in the process of data collection, interpretation, implementation and declaration of results in mathematics and its applications.

Activities Number Duration (Hours) Total Workload
Course Hours (Including Exam Week: 16 x Total Hours) 16 3 48
Laboratory
Application
Special Course Internship
Field Work
Study Hours Out of Class 16 2 32
Presentation/Seminar Prepration
Project
Report
Homework Assignments 2 12 24
Quizzes/Studio Critics
Prepration of Midterm Exams/Midterm Jury 2 8 16
Prepration of Final Exams/Final Jury 1 10 10